Staff writer Guy de Basto analyses Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup ahead of the opening match between the Netherlands and Japan on 14 June.
Early action from other groups has set the tone and this group looks more than ready to follow suit. Group F brings together a cast of familiar faces and one returning underdog. The Netherlands arrive as one of the most decorated nations never to actually win the trophy three World Cup finals, three runners-up medals and a relentless hunger that refuses to fade. Japan, perennial round-of-16 regulars, will be eyeing the breakthrough that has eluded Asian football for over two decades. Sweden returns to the World Cup stage for the first time since 2018, carrying the weight of a golden generation that has slowly diminished but never quite disappeared. And Tunisia, group stage regulars with painful near-misses of their own, will be hoping this is finally the tournament where they turn promise into points.
It’s interesting because it’s a group without a true outsider. Every team here has been here before, and every side knows exactly what heartbreak tastes like. The question is which of them is hungry enough to finally do something to avoid facing the same fate.
Japan: The Rising Sun’s Last Push
No Longer Dark Horses?
Resurgent Japan are making their eighth consecutive World Cup appearance. They have reached the round of 16 four times, their best-ever performance and have had some fantastic results, stunning the world by beating both Spain and Germany in Qatar before falling to Croatia on penalties. The question, therefore is no longer whether Japan can shock the giants, but rather if they’re ready to finally go further than the round of 16.
The Quiet Architect of Japan’s Rise
Hajime Moriyasu, 57, has been in charge since August 2018 and will be leading Japan into a second consecutive World Cup. Three goals conceded across ten matches in AFC qualifying is a good indicator of what the Samurai Blue priorisite – defensive solidity first, with the Nihon becoming the first non-host nation to confirm their place, doing so with three games to spare. It is also worth noting that Moriyasu has a strong record against big-name opposition and many have, understandably, referred to his side as dark horses rather than underdogs.
The Ones to Watch
Unfortunately, Japan’s squad has been gutted by injury before they’ve even landed. Captain Wataru Endo suffered a bad ankle injury in February and despite being called up, had to withdraw from the tournament just three days before the first game of the group stage. This is not just a major blow to both the side’s leadership but more importantly, their midfield base. It will likely also lead to a change in formation, which initially looked like a 3-4-2-1 that would likely be reevaluated.
As if that wasn’t bad enough already, Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Japan’s most creative attacker, is also ruled out with a hamstring injury, a player Moriyasu admitted would be very difficult to replace in time. Altogether, that puts even more weight on Takefusa Kubo of Real Sociedad, alongside Ritsu Doan, Japan’s most dangerous wide attacker, who came off the bench to score the equalisers in stunning comeback wins over both Germany and Spain in 2022. In other news, 39-year-old Yuto Nagatomo becomes the first Asian player ever to appear at five different World Cups.
No Stars, No Problem
Six Bundesliga starters and five Eredivisie players give this side genuine European depth, even with two key absences. Given their aforementioned record of beating Germany and Spain in 2022, Japan are genuine contenders to not just qualify from this group, but go even further still.
Predicted finish: Second Despite the fact they are short of some key players, this remains Japan’s most talented generation yet, and their pedigree against bigger nations should be enough to see off Sweden and Tunisia.
Netherlands: The Eternal Bridesmaids
One Step Further
The Netherlands have been runners-up three times, in 1974, 1978 and 2010, and head to North America hoping to finally answer the question that has haunted Dutch football for half a century: will this finally be their year? Having made at least the quarter-finals in three of the last four tournaments, the pedigree is there. The trophy, however, is not.
Second Time the Charm?
Ronald Koeman, in his second spell since 2023, led the Netherlands to top Group G without a single loss, winning six of eight games and conceding just four goals. Tactically, expect a 4-2-3-1, with Gravenberch and De Jong forming the double pivot to dictate tempo in front of a back four built around captain Van Dijk. Interestingly, Koeman has leaned heavily on Premier League talent, with fifteen of the 26-man squad playing in England.
The Ones to Watch
Injuries have bitten hard. Xavi Simons, the side’s best midfielding option going forward, ruptured his ACL in April and is out of the tournament entirely, while Jurrien Timber was forced to withdraw just days before the start through injury. Despite this, Memphis Depay, the Netherlands’ all-time top scorer with 55 international goals, has been included despite a hamstring setback limiting him to just two substitute appearances for Corinthians. Koeman’s message was simple: he didn’t see anyone else who could do the job. Around him, look to Cody Gakpo, Tijjani Reijnders and Frenkie de Jong for genuine attacking quality, with Virgil van Dijk marshalling the back line.
Final Question
With notable debutants Jorrel Hato and Crysencio Summerville, an underrated goal scorer, adding fresh legs to a battle-tested core, this remains one of the most talented squads in the tournament despite the injuries and all. The only question that matters is the one Dutch football has constantly been asking since 1974.
Predicted finish: First With the deepest squad in the group despite injury setbacks, and three runners-up finishes driving them on, anything less than topping the group would be a missed opportunity.
Sweden: Chaos Theory
Great Escape
Sweden return to the World Cup after missing out on Qatar 2022, having pulled off what was widely dubbed a “great escape” — sealing their place via the European play-offs after a frustrating qualifying campaign. In Group B itself they managed just two points from six games, but a 3-1 win over Ukraine and a dramatic 3-2 victory over Poland in the play-off final rescued the campaign entirely. This will be Sweden’s 13th World Cup appearance, with their best result a runners-up finish to Brazil on homesoil in 1958.
The Englishman Sweden Didn’t Know It Needed
Jon Dahl Tomasson was sacked in October 2025 after a 1-0 home defeat to Kosovo, the first time a Sweden manager had ever been dismissed, and Graham Potter, one of only two English managers at the 2026 World Cup, was appointed days later. Potter scrapped the previous 3-5-2 system in favour of a more attacking approach, alternating between a 3-4-2-1 and an agressive 3-4-3, and despite this being his first major international tournament, the Swedish FA knew exactly what they were getting. Potter previously took Östersunds from the fourth tier to the Europa League knockout rounds.
The Ones to Watch
Arsenal talismsan Viktor Gyökeres has been on fantastic form for Sweden since 2023. With Alexander Isak unlikely to be fully fit, Gyökeres will shoulder the goalscoring burden almost single-handedly. Behind him, Anthony Elanga arrives off the back of a productive Forest spell where he struck 11 times and provided 21 assists across two seasons, though his move to Newcastle has so far brought a slower start, with just one assist in the Premier League this season. A World Cup stage may be exactly the reset he needs. His searing pace and willingness to run in behind remains a genuine weapon regardless of club form. Captain Victor Lindelöf, with 76 caps, anchors the defence, while 22-year-old Yasin Ayari is the squad’s most exciting young talent and could be the breakout name of the tournament if given the platform.
All Guns, No Plan
Any team boasting Isak and Gyökeres in the same frontline is a threat regardless of how they got here, with Anthony Elanga, Yasin Ayari and Lucas Bergvall adding further Premier League quality. Qualification may have been chaotic, but this squad has more than enough to cause problems in the group stage.
Predicted finish: Third Gyökeres and Isak give them more individual quality than Tunisia, but a chaotic qualifying campaign and a brand-new manager make consistency across three group games a real concern.
Tunisia: Building From the Back
History’s Stingiest Qualifiers
Tunisia head to their seventh World Cup having written qualifying history. They won nine of ten matches in CAF Group H, scored 22 goals and recorded a perfect ten clean sheets, becoming the first side ever to qualify for the World Cup without conceding a single goal. Yet Tunisia has never reached the knockout stages in six previous appearances, bowing out at the group stage every single time. The defensive record is historic. The breakthrough unfortunately still isn’t.
A New Boss, A Borrowed Blueprint
That qualifying campaign was built under Sami Trabelsi, but he was dismissed after Tunisia’s AFCON last-16 exit to Mali on penalties, and Sabri Lamouchi was appointed in January 2026. This will be his second World Cup as a coach, having previously taken Ivory Coast out at the group stage in 2014. His record with Tunisia reads four matches: One win, one draw and two defeats – meaning he arrives in North America still learning the squad that built that historic defensive record. With all things equal, they will likely play a 4-2-3-1 in the group stage.
The Ones to Watch
Captain Ellyes Skhiri, who plays for Eintracht Frankfurt, is the most significant cog in an iron-clad midfield, with 83 caps to his name and the experience to lead this side both on and off the pitch. FC Copenhagen’s Elias Achouri serves as the engine of Tunisia’s workaholic midfield, his partnership with Burnley’s Hannibal Mejbri proving efficient and making this side very difficult to beat. Elsewhere, Union Berlin’s Rani Khedira arrives as one of the squad’s most intriguing additions, only recently agreeing to represent Tunisia and making a strong impression in friendlies against Haiti and Canada thanks to his extensive Bundesliga experience. It’s a squad short on household names, but packed with players who know exactly how to make life difficult for opponents.
Three Points from History
Tunisia will be based in Mexico for their opening two fixtures against Sweden and Japan, before facing the Netherlands. Just three points could be enough to finally secure a first-ever knockout round appearance. The wall has been built. Whether it can hold for four games, with a new coach still finding his feet, is the only question that matters.
Predicted finish: Fourth The defensive record is remarkable, but a side still adjusting to a new coach and lacking proven quality in the final third may find goals hard to come by against this opposition.
Conclusion:
To me, Group F is a study in contrasts. The Netherlands carry the heaviest historical burden of any side at the tournament, three finals lost and counting, while Japan arrive with nothing left to prove against the big nations and everything left to prove about going further than the round of 16. Sweden’s route here was chaotic enough to sack a manager mid-campaign, yet somehow they’ve ended up with two of the most dangerous strikers in Europe in the same squad. And Tunisia have built something genuinely historic in defence, even if the World Cup has a habit of punishing teams who’ve never had to find out what happens next.
Three of these four sides look capable of progressing, which means someone with real quality is going home early. In this group, that might be the story that defines it. Injuries, new managers, and old hang-ups all collide in the same four matches, and not everyone can come out the other side unscathed. By the time the dust settles, Group F could end up telling us more about this World Cup than any of the supposed “groups of death”.
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