Liangfa (Humphrey) Chen

Third-year BA Politics student

Comment Writer

Word count: 545

With the 3 November midterm elections approaching, Democrats have grounds for optimism. September polling from Fox News and CNN showed Democratic leads of seven and eight points respectively on the generic congressional ballot. Opportunities also extend to the Senate. In North Carolina, where Trump won in 2016, 2020 and 2024, an Elon University survey published in September gave former Democratic governor Roy Cooper an 11-percentage-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley among likely voters in the race to replace retiring Senator Thom Tillis.

The question is what this support amounts to. Choosing Democrats over Republicans does not require voters to approve of their current performance. It can express a desire for change while leaving doubts about the party itself unresolved.

Support with Reservations

Quinnipiac’s September survey makes this distinction clear. While 51% of registered voters wanted Democrats to control the House of Representatives, only 22% approved of how Democrats in Congress were doing their jobs.

Fox’s survey examines why respondents think Democrats would handle inflation better. Among those who held that view, 51% mainly attributed it to Republicans’ poor performance, while 47% mainly expected Democratic policies to reduce prices. Democrats’ support on inflation is therefore partly a response to Republican failures, rather than solely an endorsement of their own policies.

Support driven by Republican failures would face a different test after November. A Democratic majority would bring the party’s own performance in Congress under closer scrutiny. If Democrats failed to address voters’ concerns, they would face criticism of their own performance, even from voters who remained dissatisfied with Republicans.

Questions of Credibility

Confidence in Democrats’ ability to solve problems remains divided. In AP-NORC’s late-September survey, respondents were asked how well “able to solve important problems” described the Democratic Party. Only 18% of American adults answered “very well” or “extremely well”. Another 33% said “somewhat well”, while 47% said “not very well” or “not well at all”.

Trust in future performance also rests on a party’s willingness to examine its past decisions. The Democratic National Committee’s handling of its 2024 election review offers one example. Chair Ken Martin initially promised publication but later withheld the report, citing concerns about its quality and the distraction it might cause before the midterms. He released it in May following internal pressure. Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer called for his departure, while Martin acknowledged that withholding it had created a bigger distraction.

Martin’s promise to publish the review gave supporters reason to expect an open examination of the party’s defeat. Withholding it raised questions about whether the leadership was prepared to honour that commitment and explain what had gone wrong.

Trust Built Through Performance

Yet individual Democrats can earn trust through practical results, as Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff’s endorsements from Republican local officials illustrate. Valdosta Mayor Scott James Matheson, who described himself as a lifelong conservative, praised Ossoff’s response to Hurricane Helene. Tifton Mayor Julie Smith also endorsed him, citing his contribution to southern Georgia. These endorsements show how effective local representation can earn support across party lines.

Democrats have more to build on than Republican unpopularity alone. A November victory could unite recognition of individual records with a wider demand for change. Winning a majority would give Democrats power. It would not spare them the task of earning broader trust.