Staff Writer Abyan Memon writes about the unprecedented recent success of the Kansas City Chiefs in the National Football League (NFL).
Two NFL teams finished the regular season with a historic 15 wins. One of these teams being the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. However, many NFL fans believe their record is misleading. They argue that the unusual reliance on favourable penalty calls, missed opportunities by opponents, and a string of fortunate breaks that have helped the Chiefs to 15 wins nullifies their 15-2 record.
While every NFL team benefits from penalties and luck, the Chiefs have consistently found themselves on the favourable side of controversy and fortune in tight games. Whether it’s improbable blocked kicks, botched opponent plays, or game-deciding referee decisions, the Chiefs’ success in these situations almost makes it seem like they willed victories into existence.
Breaking Down the Season
The NFL regular season stretches through 18 weeks. Every team plays one game each week, except for their respective bye weeks.
In this analysis, we’ll exclude Kansas City’s bye week, Week 6, and Week 18, where Kansas City rested its starters in a meaningless game. The team’s only other regular-season loss came in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills and the MVP frontrunner Josh Allen.
Out of their remaining 15 games—all victories—the Chiefs only won four games by more than a single score (Weeks 5, 7, 15, and 17). Weeks 8, 12, and 16 were all one-score victories, but without any significant penalties or unusual plays.
The remaining eight wins, however, tell a different story—each defined by one key moment where fortune seemed to favour Kansas City.
The “Lucky 8”
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City led the season opener game 27-20 with two minutes remaining. The Ravens drove down the field and Lamar Jackson hit Isaiah Likely in the back of the end zone. The referees initially ruled the catch a score, but replays showed Likely’s toe had landed an inch out of bounds. The call was reversed and Kansas City won its first game by an inch—literally.
Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Facing a 4th & long down in their own territory on a crucial drive, the Chiefs’ were saved by a controversial pass interference (PI) call on a Bengals safety that pushed Kansas City into field goal range, giving them the chance to hit the game-winning kick as time expired, and win the game.
Week 3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
In the final two minutes of the game Atlanta attempted a deep pass towards the end zone. Despite what looked like a clear penalty by the Chiefs, no PI call was called, allowing Kansas City to escape with another narrow victory.
Week 4 vs. LA Chargers
This game saw another Kansas City game-winning drive aided by a penalty call. The flag was not only thrown late but the officials called the infraction on the wrong Chargers player, adding fire to criticism regarding the legitimacy of recent calls.
Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After finding the end zone with seconds left in regulation, the Bucs decided to kick the extra point to tie the game, despite contemplating a 2-point conversion attempt to win the game. This decision by the Bucs coupled with Kansas City winning the coin toss opened the doors for the Chiefs to win the game in overtime.
Week 10 vs. Denver Broncos
Denver needed a routine 34-yard kick to hand Kansas City its first loss of the season, with the clock expiring on the game. Unfortunately for Denver, the Chiefs managed to block the attempt—an incredibly unlikely outcome, with less than 2% of field goal attempts being blocked league-wide.
Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Down two points with 15 seconds remaining, the Raiders were within field goal range. However, a botched snap between the rookie center and his quarterback resulted in Kansas City recovering the fumble and running out the clock.
Week 14 vs. LA Chargers
Kansas City prevailed on a game-winning field goal, hitting a dramatic bank-shot. Kicks that strike the goalpost typically have a success rate of 5-10%, the Chiefs enjoyed the rare bounce in their favour.
Offensive Statistics
Despite their league-best record and two short stretches of winning games by more than just a handful of points, the Chiefs finished as one of only three teams to go the entire regular season without scoring 30 points in a single game—the other two being the 4-13 Raiders and the 4-13 Patriots. This lack of offensive firepower has only added fuel to the narrative of Kansas City as an overachieving, fortunate team.
Unsurprisingly, Chiefs fans have come to their team’s defense. One Reddit user highlighted the Chiefs’ above-average rankings in other offensive statistical categories, and argued that a great defense can legitimize low-scoring games:
“Theoretically, if a team had a god like defense and a terrible offense, they could win every game 3-0 by shutting out their opponents and they would still be a good football team.”
However, critics argue that defense alone doesn’t explain the repeated role of controversial penalties and fluke plays in the Chiefs’ success, especially given four of their close wins came against teams that failed to make the playoffs. Ultimately, it has to be accepted that the Chiefs were dangerously close to a 7-10 record in a very likely alternate reality.
As the NFL playoffs head into the divisional round, the question remains: are the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs truly title-contenders and will they manage to pull off the first ever three-peat in NFL history, or will the playoffs expose them as a team reliant on external factors?
