“Appeasement doesn’t work”, Estonia’s Foreign Minister has said in a speech at the King’s College London Centre of Grand Strategy.
Speaking on November 14, Margus Tsahkna emphasised that for Estonia, “Ukraine is not just fighting for us; they are actually fighting instead of us.”
Tsahkna repeatedly stated that the world is experiencing a “1938 moment”. “World War Three has already started” he asserted, citing hybrid attacks and cyber warfare. The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region was a “sign of desperation”, Tsahkna argued, but also an indication of the global nature of the conflict.
Estonia has promised to deliver 0.25% of its GDP to Ukraine in the form of military aid for the next four years. It is expected to spend 3.43% of GDP on its own military this year, second only to Poland among NATO countries, as a proportion of GDP.
Putin’s ultimate plan is the restoration of the Soviet Union, Tsahkna asserted. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said earlier this year that Russia was preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade. For Estonia, the prospect of invasion has a particular historical resonance: Tsahkna noted that “all families have stories” of suffering under the USSR.
Speaking just days before President Biden authorised the use of US-made ATACM missiles within Russia, Tsahkna emphasised the need for support of Ukraine over fears of escalation: “The problem is not that Putin is afraid… the problem is that we are afraid.”
He asserted, “to be neutral is to be alone,” stressing that only NATO provides the security guarantees necessary for survival in the face of an aggressive neighbor. While praising initiatives like the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) – a military partnership of Nordic and Baltic states led by the UK – Tsahkna was clear that NATO remains the only organization with the capabilities and plans to ensure security: “JEF is a brilliant organisation… but… NATO is the organisation with the capabilities and plans to secure us,” he said.
Tsahkna credited NATO and Estonia’s allies for strengthening the country’s defenses and made clear that Estonia is ready for whatever comes next. “We are more prepared than ever before,” he said, attributing this readiness to Estonia’s decision to align with NATO and the European Union.
He also welcomed NATO’s updated defence plans, which now prioritize holding every inch of territory rather than adopting a strategy of retreat and counterattack. “We’re not giving away a centimetre of NATO territory,” he asserted, noting the lessons learned from Russia’s previous occupations. “We have seen what has happened in the territories that Russia has occupied.”
In closing, Tsahkna left no doubt about the stakes. “Putin says he wants to discuss a new order with Trump,” Tsahkna remarked, “but I don’t want to create a new order.” Instead, he called for a renewed commitment to the principles that have underpinned the world order post-1945. “There’s more at stake than just Ukraine,” he cautioned, urging the international community to act decisively and prevent history from repeating itself.
For more reporting on events around King’s, see here.
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