Staff writer Harris Bourne looks back at the Türkiye-Syria Earthquake and highlights Erdoğan’s inadequate government policies and failed reforms that prioritised short-term gains over safety.
On a recent trip to Istanbul, I was awoken by a backup generator shaking the floor of my hotel. The previous week had been the 2-year anniversary of the Türkiye–Syria earthquake that took the lives of over 50,000 people. While I struggled to get back to sleep, I began to wonder how I would fare if that was not the shaking of an electricity generator, but the tremors of 2 tectonic plates. As the sound of car horns resumed through the single glaze windows of my fifth-floor room, I began to realise I would probably not do so well.
The next morning as I made my way down one of the many steep hills that makes up one the most populated city in Europe, that is if you count Türkiye as Europe, I began to examine the buildings that crowded the street. It quickly became evident that it wasn’t just me who wasn’t ready, but the rest of Istanbul also.
What are the chances?
In 2001, Prof. Dr. Dogan Kalafat, the late accomplished earthquake researcher of Kandilli observatory, placed the threat of a 7.0+ magnitude earthquake hitting Istanbul by 2030 at 64%. He confirmed this probability again in 2023, suggesting the probability would rise to 75% by 2050.
Over a million buildings make up Istanbul’s sprawling skyline, over 60% of which are not earthquake proof according to Turkish seismologist Prof. Naji Gurur. Agreeing that there is at least a 64% chance of a 7.0+ magnitude earthquake hitting Istanbul by the end of the decade, Gurur has also warned that the death toll could reach 4 million. That would make it the most devastating natural disaster to ever be recorded in human history.
Alongside this, Türkiye is drastically behind on early warning systems. Its first comprehensive nationwide alert system won’t be effective until 2029, while privately provided systems such as Googles Android Earthquake Alert System failed during the initial quake in 2023. The World Bank suggests that up to 30% of lives can be saved during an earthquake if an effective early warning system is in place, that would reduce the 2023 death toll by over 15,000.
Reflecting on the past
The 2023 Türkiye–Syria earthquake exposed not only their weaknesses in preparation to, but also ignorance to danger and human life by Türkiye long-term president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In a brazen attempt to fast track (and profit maximise) the construction of new buildings in 2018, Erdoğan issued a nationwide building amnesty allowing new buildings to bypass construction safety measures. The amnesties made the government approximately $19 billion through fees; supporters of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) were also some of the biggest to profit (see: ‘the gang of five’).
Under the imar affi (zoning amnesty), over 7 million structures received building certificates regardless of unsafe construction, according to Turkish minister for the environment Murat Kurum. Up to 75,000 of which were the first to fall in 2023 and were hence largely responsible for the scale of the disaster. Since the harsh illustration of the danger of poor construction, under a million of the 7.5 million ‘vulnerable’ buildings in Istanbul have been recalled for reconstruction. 1.5 million of these are deemed ‘high risk’ according to Kurum.
Not realising his own role in the devastation caused by dubious policy design, Erdoğan instead attributed the loss of life in 2023 to “fate’s plan,” telling The Guardian that “it’s not possible to be ready for a disaster like this.” Despite facing criticism and hopefully, hindsight, Erdoğan still appears to be blind to the reforms necessary to prepare for what will otherwise be a monumental loss of life.
What next?
Awake to the danger, the World Bank alongside several other donors have provided €3.7 billion of funding for earthquake proofing public buildings within Istanbul. So far, 1,700 buildings have been fully rebuilt or structurally renovated through these donations. While it is a welcomed sight that external efforts are being made to address vulnerabilities, projects such as these have only demonstrated limited ability to tackle both the monumental workload and the institutional weaknesses of Türkiye’s construction problem.
One World Bank estimate in 2021 suggested upwards of $400 billion would be required to retrofit and reconstruct all unfit buildings across Türkiye as a whole. Therefore, it’s necessary that crucial developments and prevention of further ‘mistakes’, as with the 2018 building amnesty, be made internally.
To at least stand some chance of resistance, Turkey should look to countries like Japan, Taiwan and Chile for inspiration. Strict building codes and harsh punishments for those who cut corners alongside substantial investment into earthquake technology are all necessary preparations. The Turkish government need to realise that a trade-off has to occur.
The safety and protection of Turkish citizens should come at an absolute priority, regardless of any short-term economic benefit foregone. While it is true that local authorities need to exercise strict enforcement of regulations, they have little autonomy when it comes to actual policy making, that responsibility instead falls to the central government. With Erdoğan in office until 2028 (at least), this means it is likely to be up to Erdoğan’s government alone to prepare for this unprecedented threat.
Having failed to take control of the earthquake prone west coast and Istanbul itself in 2024 local elections, it’s increasingly clear that Erdoğan’s government has lost the trust of those most at risk. For a political party that came into power upon the mistakes of the previous government in dealing with the 1999 Izmit earthquake, it seems Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party may be heading the same way.
It will be hard to blame fate again after being presented with its probability.
