Staff writer Emily Ng covers the recent Japanese snap elections and how the National Diet is transforming under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Shigeru Ishiba’s first month as Japan’s new prime minister and the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has come to a close, and the most recent snap elections did not turn out in his favour. Denoted by some to be an outlier, a populist, and with several scandals under his belt, yet faced with a sudden drop in public support, does his premiership represent a new era of Japanese politics?
The diminishing popularity of the LDP
During the snap elections on 27 October, the LDP lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in 15 years. Against Ishiba’s expectations, the public was not ready to forget the party’s most recent slush fund scandal, nor were they feeling particularly agreeable amidst the rising living costs and bleak economic outlook.
Meanwhile, oppositional and fringe parties gained seats in Japan’s Parliament, the National Diet, with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) increasing its projected seat tally to 148. Media outlets have wryly described the snap elections as a gamble that backfired.
Though these are encouraging steps towards challenging LDP hegemony, they have also led to concerns about domestic and regional stability. Both Ishiba and the LDP have lost influence, pointing to renewed power struggles within and without the party. What Shihoko Goto, the director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Wilson Centre, refers to as a “revolving door of prime ministers”, may also cause Japan’s investors to lose confidence and the United States to doubt Japan’s role as a stabilizing power in the Indo-Pacific region.
Moreover, Ishiba’s very rise to power is indicative of the LDP’s diminishing dominance. It is a common practice within the LDP to adopt the positions of opposition parties or to elect politicians with greater public appeal in times of scandal, crisis or diminishing support. Known to be a relatively progressive member of the LDP, with his open support for women’s empowerment, same-sex marriage and the acknowledgement of Japan’s imperialist history, Ishiba was chosen to pivot the LDP into a “new direction” and reignite the LDP’s appeal in the public eye.
Campaign promises: will Ishiba’s pledges foster true change?
In order to hold the snap elections, Ishiba had to dissolve Parliament within days of his inauguration, backtracking on what he had said during his election campaign. This was completely unexpected for the opposition parties, who remarked that it was unconstitutional to call snap elections for a new Parliament at this time.
Overseas students, too, were caught off guard. The voting registration process takes up to a few months for citizens who are abroad. Ryo, a Japanese exchange student studying international relations at the LSE, was unable to become eligible to vote. This has caused Ryo to doubt that Ishiba is trustworthy. Nor was Fumi, a Japanese citizen and long-time resident of the UK, able to register in time for the snap elections.
In another moment of fickleness, Ishiba remarked that it wasn’t the right time to lift interest rates, after having endorsed the central bank’s policy to raise the rates just two months before.
Hopelessness about the change in leadership
On 11 November, the Diet will hold another general election, only a month after Ishiba’s rise to premiership. The LDP now faces pressure to form coalitions with other parties to stay in power. However, Ishiba is confident that he will be re-elected, as he vows to stay in office to prevent the appearance of a “political vacuum”.
Despite his drop in popularity, the fractured nature of the opposition makes it difficult to amalgamate a majority to overtake the LDP. Though the LDP’s decreased influence in the House of Representatives may slow parliamentary progress, the other opposition parties have been unable to form powerful coalitions, with the biggest opposition party, the CDP, still having fewer seats in total.
The general sentiment is that it is almost pointless to expect a change in leadership after the LDP has been dominant for such a long period. Even though Ryo prefers the opposition parties, he acknowledges that it will be very difficult for them to gain the upper hand over the LDP. Fumi noted that:
“The current ruling party is morally corrupt, and therefore in dire need of reform. The notion that there are no credible alternatives simply adds to the direness of the situation.”
Fumi
The need for the LDP to enhance cooperation with the opposition
The make-up of the Diet posits some essential questions: Does the wavering dominance of the LDP have implications for the economic and diplomatic strategies of the new prime minister? Do the shifting dynamics within the National Diet herald major changes in these policies?
Though Ishiba represents a step towards a more moderate and progressive direction, being referred to as “the LDP’s consummate outsider” by the Japan Times, his calls for a national wage increase and for firms to undertake a greater proportion of the tax burden are not completely unorthodox.
Ishiba evokes Fumio Kishida’s “New Capitalism”, a strategy based on redistribution, which he had proposed at the start of his administration. Faced with falling stock prices, however, Kishida was quickly held to retreat upon his words and opt for a more conventional approach towards government investment. This raises the question: will Ishiba, too, be forced to default on this goal?
Moreover, with decreased Parliamentary support, it is hard to say how many of Ishiba’s goals or proposed initiatives will be allowed to progress without significant alterations. Change is therefore likely to occur, not through the pivotal role of Ishiba himself, but through the need to cooperate with opposition parties in the face of the LDP’s dwindling influence. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP), for instance, may work with the LDP to combat inflation, indicating that future economic policies may be impacted under the input and pressure exerted by oppositional parties.
As of now, Ishiba’s economic and security policies have room yet to change. Having only been in office for a month, and now being faced with a sudden loss of support in Parliament, his suggestions remain vague. Perhaps a direction will be further solidified, and we will gain more clarity after the LDP and its opposition adjust to the new power dynamic.
