Staff Writers Salomé Ichay and Katie Collins set out the state of play in 2026.
If you think 2025 has been chaotic, 2026 looks set to be even worse! It’s only February and Trump’s America has already launched an operation in Venezuela culminating in the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro, and his exfiltration to the United States. On the Gulf front, tensions between the UAE-Saudi Arabia rift is intensifying as both powers backing opposing factions in Yemen, ultimately having spillover effects on regional stability. In parallel, Trump is building up military forces in the Gulf as a way to pressure Iran into signing a nuclear deal. As a multipolar order gains prominence, let’s dive into the geopolitical trends to expect this year.
The race for AI supremacy
As in 2025, artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to shape the global economy and challenge the world order. China seems to be running ahead of the United States in the AI race, with the former gaining steady influence in the Global South through the deployment of Chinese technologies in middle-income countries. These technologies may be technologically less advanced but are cheaper and just as effective as the American ones, therefore more appealing to Global South markets.
Hunger for technological dominance only drives the AI innovation race between the two superpowers to a certain extent. The AI sector has become the theatre of the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China—where each aims to project its advancements at the global scale. In fact, BYD, the leading Chinese firm in electric cars, has surpassed its main competitor, American giant Tesla. A fierce competition is to be expected in 2026, and following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s claim that China is currently ahead in the race, we can expect America to work harder to catch up with its rival.
The flurry of media coverage of AI has helped drive up a surge in investment, particularly in research and development, but it has also raised concerns about inflated valuations. The rapid influx of capital into AI firms is fuelling fears of a speculative bubble that could burst as early as 2026, with potentially serious consequences for the global economy.
Middle East
The reconstruction of Gaza, as part of Trump’s peace plan signed in late September 2025, has encountered several obstacles. Hamas’ refusal to disarm and continued Israeli settler violence makes the situation even more complex than it already is. It is very likely that confrontations between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank will increase as well as renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, further deepening the humanitarian crisis and exacerbating regional instability. In this context, it is difficult to hope for a better future for Israeli-Palestinian relations in 2026.
Furthermore, Iran’s ongoing nuclear program development, despite past US and Israeli targeted bombings, renders any possibility of achieving some kind of peace even more unlikely. With nuclear talks ongoing at early stages, however, a cooling off may be in reach.
Russia-Ukraine
Despite Trump’s proposed ceasefire plan between the two European states, an end to the war doesn’t seem to be getting any closer. In fact, Putin has recently accused Ukraine of being behind the attack on his residence while Russia launched more than 600 drones and 30 missiles to Ukraine in the last few days of December. Currently, negotiations have come to a stall since Ukrainian President Zelensky does not want to give up parts of Ukrainian territory and Trump’s friendship with Putin hardly reassures Ukraine that Russia will keep its word in respecting the agreement. Overall, we can expect an intensification of the war caused by each side targeting critical infrastructures, especially energy, and population centres.
If both countries struggle to reach a compromise, we may witness a withdrawal of US mediation and the re-entry of European actors within the negotiation process, despite not having proven to be very effective in reaching a common ground with the Kremlin in the past .
Taiwan at risk
If Russia’s war in Ukraine has taught the international community anything, it is that large-scale military exercises near a neighbour’s border should not be dismissed as mere signalling. In early 2022, Moscow conducted extensive drills before launching its invasion of Ukraine. In the end of 2025, China was actively engaging in similar military activities around Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s New Year’s Eve speech, in which he described Taiwan’s “reunification” with China as “unstoppable”, reinforces concerns that these exercises may be more than symbolic—and could foreshadow an imminent military operation.
Nonetheless, China remains aware that launching an invasion would surely trigger an American intervention possibly with its main ally in the region, i.e. Japan. Indeed, ever since Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi hinted that Japan might consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as triggering “collective self-defence”, tensions and distrust has been rampant between the two Asian countries. In the meantime, the international community should stay alert and keep an eye on the situation.
May Elections
At a moment where British politics feels suspended between eras, the local and mayoral elections in May will provide an opportunity for parties to garner legitimacy as a force in Westminster. Local elections rarely provide a clear cut answer; turnout is lower than general elections, and often local motivation may not align with what people expect from a national government. Yet, they still provide insight—this is the first nationwide vote since the last general election cycle began, so a brief snapshot into the current landscape could help us understand what’s to come in 2029, or perhaps sooner.
Two key things are something to look out for. First, how will our traditional parties hold up? After a devastating blow in Wales last year, Labour has lost support in seats long thought to be safe. This is a reflection of not just natural friction, but voters’ misalignment with the current state of the party. The Conservatives are no better, with Badenoch’s takeover failing to resonate with voters. Both parties have lost major voting blocs to populist parties from both sides, leading to the next question: is 2026 the year where traditional UK politics crumble? Reform UK and the Greens have both surged in polling and presence, garnering major support that has taken votes away from the main parties. A win for either in these elections would lend credibility to a third party alternative within Westminster that could sit as PM or Leader of the Opposition. Whilst May’s elections won’t provide a clear cut answer, they will offer a clear glimpse into how politics will functions over the next year, and what to expect come the next general election.
Populism across Europe
A growing trend in Europe in recent years expected to continue is the continuous rise of far-right populism. In both oppositions and governments, political parties have seemingly cemented a place across the region rooted in nationalism and anti-immigration rhetoric. Four of the EU’s largest powers, Spain, Germany, France and Italy all face regional and municipal elections that will reflect how much momentum the far right really has. Italians voting on constitutional reform will test the support for Meloni’s coalition, France and Spain both face local elections that will gauge each respective presidential vote, especially in the context of France’s government instability, and Germany’s regional elections will test the popularity of newly appointed Chancellor Merz.
Critical to watch in 2026 are the Hungarian elections. Viktor Orbán, the prime minister between 1998 and 2002, has had power in office since 2010. He sits at the centre of the national conservative camp across Europe and aligns closely with Donald Trump. Yet he faces a serious opponent: Péter Magyar. Although their views do not differ widely on social issues, Magayar has campaigned strongly for improving relations with Brussels and Hungarians’ purchasing power, and polling shows that these messages resonate with the public.
Could this trend in Europe reflect the trend followed across the Atlantic with the MAGA movement’s growth influencing leaders on the right to push further to the far-right? It certainly seems plausible.
US, Europe and the Greenland problem
Following the US’s intervention in Venezuela, President Trump has gone on to say that they ‘need Greenland’, suggesting a possible invasion, or annexation, of Greenland in 2026. This is not a new sentiment from Trump: during his first term the idea has been floating around, with the view that it is a “large real estate deal”, amplified once the Arctic’s wealth of natural resources and strategic importance. During his Mar-a-Lago press conference, Trump expressed his reasonings for this desire, suggesting Greenland was under threat from Russia and China. Of course, this narrative is likely more of a power play, and the spectacle surrounding Greenland signals the United States’ position as a growing dominant force, with Trump and MAGA at the heart of it.
If a US invasion into Greenland takes place, this would have consequences for Europe. The country ties Europe directly into Arctic defence, as well as providing significant reserves of resources, aiding Europe in breaking away from economic dependence on China. Possible US intervention would sever those ties between Europe and Greenland, making it increasingly harder for Europe to act as an independent force and furthering dependence on the USA. The move would also problematise the issue of sovereignty and clash with the rules-based order Europe is committed to. Although no clear response from European leaders has been made on the actions that would be taken if Trump were to go forth with an invasion, it would likely damage the US-European alliance and further isolate the US from NATO as a whole. As for the likelihood of it taking place, the recent actions in Venezuela demonstrate that it may not be out of the picture.
Key takeaways
2026 is shaping up to be even more unstable than 2025, marked by regional conflicts and geopolitical rivalries. AI has truly become a core arena of US-China strategic competition, going beyond economic incentives, where China has gradually gained influence in the Global South thereby signalling a shift and redrawing of power dynamics in the international order. Tensions and challenges in the Middle East persist despite a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, with Iran’s nuclear program development adding fuel to the flames in its already hostile relations with the US. We are still waiting for a clear path towards peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict while simultaneously monitoring the China-Taiwan situation as Xi Jinping continues intensifying military exercises near its neighbour’s borders. In Europe, one can expect to see a rise in populism and far-right movements in upcoming elections while the UK is experiencing a weakening of its traditional parties.
The two main trends to remember are the following. Deterrence strategies and broader diplomatic discussions have lost their edge as foreign policy tools—global leaders act according to their own interests first and give explanations later. Rivalries are no longer constrained to territorial ambitions but have cut across technology competition and energy securitisation, with international law warnings unheeded.
