Staff Writer Dahlia Farzi assesses why the promises made by Harris and Trump in the US elections resulted in Trump’s victory.
Donald Trump recaptured the White House last Wednesday, beating Harris 301 to 226 at the end of polling. After the Republicans obtained a Senate majority, Republican Senator Tim Scott announced that the next four years of Trump’s presidency would lead to low inflation and secured borders.
In a CNBC All-America Economic Survey held before the election, Trump narrowly surpassed Harris by a margin of 2% nationally, making the 2024 US presidential elections tighter than ever. However, Trump had been underestimated by national polls before, as seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections, so it was hard to determine how big the margins were. Moreover, some former Republicans switched allegiances to Harris and Democrats fled Harris – which made this a very unpredictable election.
Fred Upton, a former member of the GOP exclaimed that Trump has not “changed his colours,” with former Vice-President of the Bush Administration Dick Cheney even calling Trump the “greatest threat to our Republic.” Two senior Republicans now voted for the ‘enemy’. Similarly, former supporters of the Democratic party told Fox News that, because of corruption and other various issues, they now supported Trump. Cheney’s worst fear came true as Trump secured a comfortable win on Wednesday, making him the 47th president-elect.
To understand Trump’s victory, it’s important to analyse what the stances of the two presidential candidates were on some of the most important topics: the economy, immigration and foreign policy. This could explain why Trump became the second president in history to be elected to non-consecutive terms.
The economy: taxation and inflation
In 2022, the Biden-Harris administration pledged to “create millions of good-paying American jobs and […] [send Americans] back to full employment.” They succeeded as ‘’the unemployment rate is near 50-year lows, the economy has added tens of millions of jobs and wages are rising on average.’’ However, Americans still felt the effect of inflation through gas prices and food bills, despite it falling below 3% for the first time since 2021. Harris also pledged to bring down the cost of living and build 3 million new homes during her first term as president.
On the other hand, Trump pledged to cut the tax rate in 2016 which he delivered by reducing corporate tax from 35% to 15%. This was claimed to translate into a USD 4,000 raise per average household. He promised to clear the country’s then USD 19 trillion national debt “over a period of eight years.”
However, halfway through that eight-year promise, the US national debt hit USD 27 trillion in October 2020. To his credit, the economy did grow by an average of 2.5% within the first 3 years of his 2016 term. Contrastingly, Harris wanted to increase the corporate tax rate to 35%, higher than Biden’s 28%.
Both have delivered on some of their pledges, however, polls suggested Americans preferred the economy under Trump. The Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business joint survey found that 44% of voters favour Trump to shepherd the economy, compared to Harris’s 43%. Trump now pledges to stop taxing Social Security benefits for seniors and Harris planed to eliminate ‘price gouging’ on groceries. Harris also aimed to double the minimum wage to $15 if she won the election.
Americans felt they were worse off under the current administration than 4 years ago. Trump secured a comfortable win, and since many Americans believed that the economy was stronger under him, the economy was a significant driver of Trump’s re-election.
Immigration and the border crisis
The Biden-Harris administration pledged to sign tougher border compromise such as the Bipartisan National Security Agreement, which Trump pressured Republicans to kill. Harris also aimed to shut down private immigration detention centres and limit deportations back in 2020. She was criticised by opposing Republicans including Donald Trump Jr for failing to deliver.
Migration through the Mexican border did drop following the administration’s crackdown on migrant crossing, however, it was hard to see Harris’s distinct impact considering her official role wasn’t controlling the border. Between 2021 and 2023, Biden was criticised for over 2 million illegal migrant crossings.
Biden did sign, on 4 June 2024, an executive order to shut down the border if illegal crossings reached an average of 2,500 migrants a day. Harris promised to resurrect the border security deal with tougher provisions like increasing the requirements for people to seek asylum in the U.S. In effect, the number of crossings did ultimately drop. Harris’s weak approach ultimately led to Trump’s win as she was seen to be too hesitant to simply shut the borders as Trump emphatically wants.
In contrast, Trump’s mandate in 2020, and now 2024, is clear: shut down the borders. He already proposed plans and signed orders to ban migrants from Muslim-majority countries, yet had to get it amended to include more countries following a Supreme Court ruling. However, Trump intended to reduce legal immigration to 63% which he did during his term, but failed to significantly eliminate illegal immigration.
With the election results, Trump’s more direct and clear stance on immigration proved popular for the right, whilst Harris’s more nuanced approach could be seen as indecisive to her voter base. Trump’s hostility toward migrants and his ‘mass deportation plan’ shows that Americans don’t want a half-measured plan to fix the border.
Foreign policy: the world plagued by war
Biden was famously notable for fully withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2021. Trump did not fully act on his promise when he took office, but instead reduced the U.S. troop level to 2,500.
The Biden-Harris administration intended to bolster relations with the World Health Organisation (WHO) by rejoining after Trump’s administration left. Their administration also planned on returning to the Paris Climate Agreement and that Ukraine would prevail over Russia in the current war. They did reinstate the Paris Agreement and rebuilt relationships with Europe and the US, however, their progress in Ukraine is at a standstill.
Neither sides were even willing to discuss a ceasefire negotiation or come to a settlement agreement. Harris aimed to continue her predecessor’s role in the war. During her time as Vice-President, she shared American intelligence with Zelenskyy about how he could defend himself.
She claimed if Trump would be in office right now, then Putin would be sitting in Kyiv. The administration’s lack of progress in this war proved unpopular under Harris and so Trump’s victory was seen to be the ‘beginning of the end of the war.’
Trump famously says he will end the war in Ukraine within day one of his term. Part of his ‘America First’ movement included striking Syria with a missile as he called to unite the world against Islamic terrorism. In 2017, he sent a limited cruise missile in retaliation for President Assad using chemical weapons against his people.
Most notably during Trump’s administration, he tarnished America’s standing on the international level through his support of the violent mob in the Capitol on January 6th. This terror was aggravated by his support for Republicans to ‘fight like hell’. He was therefore impeached for the second time as the Judiciary Committee staff had compiled enough public evidence relating to the former President’s actions in January.
However, this didn’t seem to tarnish Trump’s victorious battle on Wednesday. Indeed, after numerous failed assassination attempts, he was seen as a warrior and hero by many. Putin even called him “courageous.”
Contrastingly, Trump is emphatically supportive of an Israeli victory. He simultaneously argued that Israel is losing the “PR war” because of the graphic images emerging from Gaza. Both candidates are reluctant to call for a Palestinian state, yet want the war in Gaza to end as soon as possible. Harris’s attempts to simultaneously please the Arab world as well as Israelis depict her as inconclusive, whilst Trump’s lack of empathy shows his individualistic nature.
Harris’s indecisive stance led many Muslim and Arab voters to flee from the Democrats. Under 50% of Muslims voted for Harris which is contrasted by 65-70% of Muslims who voted for Biden in 2020. In fact, the largest Arab-American city in Michigan overwhelmingly voted for Trump because of how Biden handled the war in Gaza.
From promises to a Trump presidency
What these two characters have said in the press or desire may not always be translated into practice. The rise of executive orders under Trump symbolises just how polarised America is.
Trump issued a record 220 executive orders whilst Biden passed 142. Executive orders are usually passed when Congress is in a gridlock and can’t effectively pass legislation. Trump manifested a huge political division where “An average of 86% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the job over the course of his tenure, compared with an average of just 6% of Democrats.” This was the “widest partisan gap in approval for any president in the modern era of polling.”
Therefore, Trump’s historic win was fuelled by his popularity concerning the economy, his radical attack on illegal migrants crossing the border and his clear stance on foreign policy. Harris failed to be clear about her positions and so disillusioned many voters. The Democrats need to stop being hesitant to make bold, radical policies and perhaps then in four years, they can hold the White House again.
