Staff Writer Grace Holloway reflects on the past few years of Scottish politics, and using the recent general election in the UK, offers some thoughts on its future.
Following the UK general election, the results have revealed many changes in voting behaviour. One of these trends appeared in Scotland, with a significant decline in popularity and a reduction in seats for the Scottish National Party (SNP).
In 2015, the SNP won all but three seats in Scotland, making it the third largest party in Westminster. The party was at its peak during this period, dominating Scottish politics and ensuring their policy platform was clearly heard. Just a year earlier, in 2014, the SNP managed to secure an independence referendum for Scotland. Whilst only a narrow majority voted to remain, it was still a major political step.
To put it lightly, a lot has occurred since then. YouGov’s recent MRP findings in June showed that the party was only expected to win 17 seats in this election. In a shocking twist of events, they won in only nine constituencies, losing 39 seats from the previous election. So, what has caused this significant turn and what can it tell us about the current position of the SNP?
The SNP as the dominant party
Since the creation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, the SNP has played a pivotal role. Originating as the second largest party, the SNP served two terms as the official opposition before taking power as a minority government in 2007. Since then, the party has remained in power in the Scottish Parliament.
The party’s breakthrough came in 2011 with its first majority government. It used this victory to secure the 2014 referendum. The referendum might have been lost, but it still reflected a strong nationalist sentiment among voters, as 44.7% voted affirmative for independence. Furthermore, the election itself coincided with the new leadership of Nicola Sturgeon, pushing the party further into mainstream politics.
Under Sturgeon’s leadership, the party achieved a series of electoral victories. As previously mentioned, they won all but three seats in the 2015 general election. In 2017 and 2019, the SNP continued to have strong performances at the polls. They were the third largest party in Westminster, affording them a key role in scrutinising the executive branch. For instance, securing 48 seats out of 59 in Scotland in 2019.
As leader of the party, Sturgeon was a key figurehead for Scottish nationalism. At the start of the pandemic, her approval ratings in Scotland were much higher than other politicians. This was partly because of her role in scrutinising then Prime Minister Boris Johnson over delayed COVID measures, alongside the partygate scandal.
Troubles for the SNP in Holyrood
Even Sturgeon was unable to hold onto such high approval ratings, as was clear by her resignation in March 2023 from her position as First Minister. The news sent shockwaves across Scotland and the UK, particularly as Sturgeon had been in office for almost a decade. Initially, she claimed her decision was caused by the ‘brutality’ of modern politics and the ‘toll’ her job had taken on her personal life.
However, it became clearer that her decision to resign was also largely driven by the police investigation into Peter Murrell, her husband and the chairman of the SNP. Murrell was accused and later found guilty of embezzling money from the party. This scandal severely damaged Sturgeon’s reputation and legitimacy as the party leader. It raised questions about her ability to scrutinise party activities (given her relationship with Murrell) and whether she was involved in the embezzlement.
Sturgeon and her leadership of Scotland had also been limited in its policy reach by Westminster. The party’s gender recognition reform bill was successfully blocked by the Conservative government for going against their stances on equality legislation. Westminster withdrew powers from the Scottish Parliament through the use of Section 35 of the Scotland Act. This action represented a pivotal case where Westminster exercised its supreme legal power over Scotland.
Similarly, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Scotland could not hold its planned 2023 independence referendum without the approval of Westminster. Thus, hindering Sturgeon’s chances of achieving her target of Scottish independence. Perhaps not wanting to fight with Westminster or the allegations regarding her husband, resignation might have seemed the best option to Sturgeon.
Following her resignation, the main two candidates for the position were Humza Yousaf and Kate Forbes. Both maintained very different policy platforms. Forbes represented the Christian-Conservative wing of the party on issues such as gay marriage. Yousaf represented a broader view, campaigning on the importance of ‘equality and the protection of rights’. This led to deep divisions within the party and an internal struggle to find its true identity, beyond the goal of independence.
The party placed their faith in Yousaf, but it did not pay off. The party’s popularity fell compared to Sturgeon’s tenure, and internal support for his leadership waned. In April this year, the Scottish Green Party caused more issues by decreasing their support for the SNP, leading to Humza and the SNP withdrawing from their governing coalition agreement. This came after Yousaf made changes to the SNP’s stance on green and gender policy related areas – the ones that were fundamental to the original governing agreement. Leaving the SNP without a majority, other parties in Holyrood tabled motions of no confidence. This only increased pressure on Yousaf to resign.
New leader, same issues?
After Yousaf’s resignation, John Swinney was selected as the leader of the party after being the only candidate to stand. He had previously led the party 20 years ago, and to quite a few SNP loyalists represents ‘core SNP values’. As Scottish First Minister, he aims to unite the party behind their long term goal of achieving independence, after recent divides over other policy areas.
While it is too early to judge how successful his leadership is in the long term, the party still faces the same issues. In recent years, nationalism and independence has declined as the main issue impacting voters, alongside public support for it. A recent poll (conducted by Ipsos and STV News) shows that health services and the NHS have emerged as the most important factor – affecting around 33% of votes.
In second comes the economy with 18% whilst independence and devolution factor in at about 17%. This reflects how the cost-of-living crisis and public experiences of the pandemic have meant that nationalism has taken a back seat, or at the very least, shifted slightly lower in the priorities of voters. These factors have contributed to the decline in SNP votes. Scottish voters have moved further towards Labour, with Labour winning 35.3% and the SNP only achieving 30% of the vote share in Scotland.
While the decline of the SNP is the result of instability in recent years, the rise of Labour cannot be easily overlooked. This makes it important for politicians, analysts, and the general public, to question whether the results reflect the decline of the SNP, the rise of Labour, or perhaps a mixture of both. It was not only in Scotland. Labour achieved a landslide victory in this election, winning 412 seats in total and displacing the Conservative party after 14 years in power.
Scottish Labour itself did remarkably well, with the leadership of Anas Sarwar bringing them more powerfully back into the picture of Scottish politics. Scottish Labour became the largest party in Scotland with 37 out of 59 seats.
Will this decline be long lasting?
The decline of the SNP in this election has been drastic. However, it was partly expected, thanks to the success of the Labour party (whether Starmer, Sarwar, or other key figures) and the challenges that have faced the SNP since the last general election. The leadership changes, unstable government and pressing economic issues did not make it easy for the party to hold onto their electoral mandate.
While the SNP has lost its position as the third party and the largest party in Scotland, there is still a bit of time to recover. The next Scottish Parliament election is two years away, giving the SNP another chance to prove itself to wary voters.
During the next two years, the party has a tough job on their hands, as they look to reclaim their reputation and re-establish their identity. Voters need to be reassured that the party can provide on issues that matter to them in the current economic climate. Thus, independence might have to take a back seat on the agenda, giving space for the NHS and economy to recover.
To rebuild the reputation and popularity lost over the past year, John Swinney may look to make his own imprint and impression on the party. It is likely we will see a stronger policy platform centred on core SNP policies, with the aim to unite voters and party members that may have felt alienated in the last year. Overall, the party needs to come together and present a united front, otherwise the prospect of governing status will slip from their hands.
Grace Holloway is Roar's editor-in-chief managing the editorial side of our operation. She has gained valuable experience from Bloomberg as well as writing for Breaking Media, the Non-League Paper and Politics UK.
