Staff Writer Riley Miszkurka-Morrison sets out the stakes at play for the United States’ 2026 Midterm Elections.
Right now, America is in the process of electing the most significant congress in the country’s history. Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi and Illinois will lead the charge with primary races in March, followed by the remaining 45 states until the midterms proper begin in November. 35 senate races and 435 seats in the House of Representatives are all ripe for the taking, and for Democrats, it has never mattered more. The first year of the Trump administration can be described as nothing short of tyrannical, his anti-diplomatic policies, empty promises and blatant criminality have not only been allowed, but encouraged by his fiercely loyal Republican Senate and House.
To be blunt, the Democrats need this win. The Democratic party has been fluctuating between the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Last year alone the Democrats had a monumental win in the Virginia and New Jersey Governors races, and the New York mayoral race, but were immediately undercut by Chuck Schumer’s world class blundering of the shutdown, in which he protested against Trump to extend the expiring health insurance subsidies for well over a month, before eight colleagues decided to vote the other way. Off the heels of the DNC’s political manifesto “Deciding to Win”, these midterms could affirm the new direction that the Democratic party is moving in, as well as begin to open investigations and sanctions on the incumbent President. Regardless of whether Democrats take the House or the Senate, these elections will no doubt set the precedent for an America after Trump.
How Are The Races Shaping Up?
Whilst some publications such as USA Today have a degree of tepid optimism, the harsh reality is that Democrats have a long road ahead of them. Currently, The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan political forecasting organisation, has the Senate going firmly to the Republican party, with the House slightly more likely to break Democrat, although the GOP are the prospective winners of a number of toss-up races. The GOP has a smaller number of held seats in the Senate when compared to Democrats, but they have created an incredibly large gap in the upcoming races. It is predicted in the Senate that currently 16 seats are forecasted as “Solidly Republican” in comparison to the Democrats measly nine.
Whilst the majority of the Senate races are decently clear cut, the most exciting and volatile was the race for Texas senate, which concluded last week. The GOP primary consisted of Senator John Cornyn fighting for every extra inch against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. In mid-2025, a Republican polling memo found the incumbent Senator down 8% against Ken Paxton, but thanks to extra funding from the RNC, Cornyn has closed the gap to half a percent in the three-way race. With the initial primary voting concluded, the GOP election has gone to runoff as Cornyn not only closed the gap, but managed to overtake Paxton by 1.2%. Representative Wesley Hunt still has 13.5% of the votes, so the GOP candidate for Texas will be decided by which candidate Hunt’s voter base prefers.
On the other hand, Democrats in Texas are rejoicing as James Talarico won out over Jasmine Crockett in a hard fought campaign. Despite starting on the back foot, Crockett managed an ambitious campaign, only falling short of Talarico by 6%. Crockett started her campaign on the back foot, as her strong convictions and fierce anti-Trump rhetoric left the Democrats divided over whether she was an asset or a hinderance. In comparison, Talarico’s palatable centre-left beliefs and more prominent social media prescience fell more in line with the type of candidate that the DNC was ready to endorse. Crockett has since come out claiming the Supreme Court’s decision to stop her campaign informing voters on changes in polling locations contributed heavily to her loss, however it seems that Texas was not ready for a candidate as progressive as her.
James Talarico has a hard job ahead of him, as if the Democrats want any reasonable power in the Senate they have to flip more than North Carolina and Maine. However Talarico’ s disposition and overwhelming win leaves room for a degree of optimism in Democrats winning state wide. The Texas Senate race will regardless, provide precedent for the comparison of the two emerging types of Democratic candidate. Crockett was an unapologetic partisan, introducing legislation that blocked Presidential pay-outs, increasing the child tax credit and the voting rights act. These issues, while important, are not the top priority of most voters, especially in Texas. Talarico is, by comparison, a Big Tent candidate. Someone who focuses on broader appeal talking points, puts more of an effort into appearing bipartisan and is less outwardly confrontational toward Republicans. Democrats constantly claim they won’t kowtow to the Trump administration, but when a candidate actually decides to stand up to him, they turn the other way.
Moving on from the Senate, the House breakdown is looking much more promising for Democrats. Democrats are showing 189 Solid Blue seats in comparison to the GOP’s 186. This seems promising, however out of the 18 races still considered a “toss up”, 14 have incumbent Republicans. The real difficulty for Democrats will be navigating the new congressional map after Trump authorised a surprising mid-cycle redistrict in order to assure he maintains his majority. Among the victims of this are Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Utah and Ohio. North Carolina and Ohio are particularly of note, as they have historically been swing states, and with the Texas senate being threatened by Democrats, Trump most likely wanted to make sure the House would stay Red.
The impacts of this redistricting can already be seen in the battleground state of Ohio, specifically the Ohio 1st. The Cook Report had the district firmly in the hands of Democrats in early 2025, but since the new congressional map passed, incumbent representative Greg Landsman faces a much tougher job. Initially, the district was heavily weighted Democrat thanks to Cincinnati, a historically blue city, however the new congressional map now includes the deeply red Clinton County. On top of that, the northern parts of Hamilton County have been left out as well, significantly diminishing the overall Democratic voter base. This race has gone from a confident “likely Democrat” to a neck and neck “toss up”, that previous winners like Kamala would now be losing by over two points.
However it would be disingenuous to say that Democrats are throwing in the towel because of these districting changes. Make no mistake, there is a blue wind coming. After the passing of Proposition 50 in California, the current Republican in office Darrel Issa has seen the comfortably red California 48th be changed into a district that is two more points Democrat than the nation as a whole. In the Pennsylvania 10th, Janelle Stelson has seen increased funding from the DCCC in order to unseat incumbent Republican Scott Perry. Democrats have also managed to even out some of the most important swing seats, such as the Virginia 2nd, Arizona 6th and the California 45th.
While the task ahead of them is monumentally difficult, we are seeing slight shifts in the political climate that will begin to open doors for Democrats once the primaries start. Trump’s approval rating is as low as it has ever been, Pew Research Centre even mentioning that confidence in him is low across all six of the major qualities befitting a president. If there is any time for the Democrats to get their act together, it’s now.
What Happens If They Win?
The end goal of securing the majority in either the house or the senate would be to slowly try to cap the overwhelming flow of mismanaged policy coming out of the oval office. A Democratic majority would prevent a situation like the November 2025 shutdown from ever happening again; allowing members of congress to more easily stand up to the Trump administration. This is where the advantage in endorsing politicians like Jasmine Crockett, as—if elected—she could replace the spine Chuck Schumer is clearly missing. Democrats can also push for the Bureau of Labour Statistics to release unemployment numbers as promised, as following the 2 million jobs created in 2024, Trump delayed the report to hide the fact he only managed just over 600,000 new jobs as of December 2025 (only in the private sector).
However, there is one thing that Democrats will be pushing for more than any of that: impeachment. If Democrats can manage even a single seat majority in the house, they can finally begin a proper investigation into the Trump presidency. Whilst Trump won’t actually get impeached, as this would require a two third majority vote in the Senate (something the Democrats are miles away from achieving), the passing of a vote to impeach would begin to get the ball rolling.
The areas which they could begin to shed light on are nearly endless. They could finally force the public release of who has security clearance in the White House, information surrounding Trump’s expanded travel ban, his foreign business dealings, his mobilisation of ICE in Minneapolis and his relationship to Jeffery Epstein. They could use Section 601 of the Revenue Act of 1924 to finally reveal what is so secret within Trumps private tax returns. Furthermore, they could push to access more internal documents about the January 6th riots, and in conjunction with Jack Smith’s congressional testimony, finally start to bring some criminal charges to Trump in relation to the insurrection. Any one of these steps would be instrumental in not only building a case against POTUS, but dismantling the cult of personality that has been infesting the GOP for the last 8 years.
After the primary races are done, the real campaigns will start, and I am sure that it will no doubt be a dogfight between every Democrat and Republican nominee. Every seat taken in the house carries monumental weight in deciding whether the Trump administration will remain unchecked for the rest of the president’s tenure, or whether there will finally be some restraint on the GOP radicals that populate congress. The time for the disorganised and highfaluting Democrats of five years ago is past. In order to stop the increasingly rapid march toward authoritarianism in the United States, we need candidates who are not afraid to stand up and speak out, because if MAGA ends up coming out the winner, we will end up the losers.
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