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The Desert Showdown: Who Will Clinch the 2025 F1 Championship?

"2025 Singapore GP - McLaren - Lando Norris - FP2" by Liauzh, via Wikimedia Commons <https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2025_Singapore_GP_-_McLaren_-_Lando_Norris_-_FP2.jpg>, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en>

Staff Writer Neil Karnik discusses the post-race drama from the Las Vegas Grand Prix and the potential outcomes of the 2025 F1 Drivers’ Championship as we head into the final two race weekends of the season.

The 2025 Formula 1 season entered its climactic phase with drama few could have anticipated. When Max Verstappen crossed the finish line at the Las Vegas Grand Prix on 23 November, he dominated the desert spectacle convincingly, securing a commanding 20-second victory that signalled Red Bull’s competitive resurgence.

Yet his triumph would merely be the appetiser to the championship feast. What unfolded in the hours following the checkered flag would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the title fight and inject unprecedented tension into the final two weekends of racing.

The Disqualification That Changed Everything

After the Grand Prix, technical checks revealed a significant issue for McLaren. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri violated Article 3.5.9 e) of the FIA F1 Technical Regulations. Their cars’ skid blocks were worn beyond the 9mm minimum.

Norris, who finished second, and Piastri, who finished fourth, were disqualified and lost all championship points. Norris’s skid block measured 8.88mm at the front and 8.93mm at the rear. These were small deviations, but still a clear violation. F1 rules allow only 1mm of wear, and any breach results in automatic disqualification.

McLaren is investigating the cause of the “unintentional” damage to both cars.

How It Stands Now

The disqualifications produced a seismic realignment of championship mathematics. Entering Las Vegas, Norris held what appeared to be a commanding 49-point advantage over Verstappen, with Piastri just 30 points behind his teammate.

Within hours, these comfortable margins evaporated. The updated standings see Norris retain his lead with 390 points, but now both Piastri and Verstappen sit tied at 366 points, just 24 points adrift. Verstappen’s deficit has been slashed by 25 points in a single weekend. A scenario few anticipated was possible.

The Three Contenders

Norris leads the standings, but Qatar demands precision. He must outscore both Piastri and Verstappen by two points to seal the title early, which is possible but leaves no room for mistakes. His season has been a story of recovery.

After early setbacks, he secured key wins in Mexico and Brazil. The Las Vegas disqualification, however, reopened the battle and increased the pressure. To close out the championship, Norris needs another clean, disciplined weekend. The title remains in his hands, but only if he delivers.

Piastri led the championship for most of the season through consistency and clean execution. But his recent form has raised eyebrows and shifted him onto the back foot. Norris’s pace has overshadowed him, and small errors combined with a shift in momentum have weakened what was once a commanding lead.

Qatar is crucial for him; he must take points off Norris to stand a chance to fight in Abu Dhabi. A strong sprint race and a podium finish would shift momentum back to him. To stay in this title fight, he needs to rediscover the calm, persistent challenger he has been all season.

Verstappen arrives with the most momentum. His dominant Las Vegas drive, backed by a good strategy and flawless tyre management, reminded everyone why he is a four-time world champion. His season began unevenly, and McLaren’s mid-year pace forced him into a chasing role, but he has surged back at the right moment.

To win the title, he needs big results in Qatar and must capitalise on any McLaren mistakes. If the fight reaches Abu Dhabi, his experience and late-season form make him a serious threat.

A New Era

For years, Formula 1 has moved in cycles of dominance. First with Sebastian Vettel’s Red Bull era, then Lewis Hamilton’s unprecedented reign at Mercedes, and more recently, Max Verstappen’s rise as the grid’s relentless benchmark. Today, as Norris and Piastri challenge Verstappen for supremacy, a new generational shift is clearly underway, echoing past transitions.

With sweeping new regulations promising a different Formula 1 in 2026, next season truly becomes a walk into the unknown. All three drivers will be eager to seize their moment before everything changes.

Three Paths, One Champion

As the championship heads to its final two weekends, every decision and result carries heightened stakes. Norris must avoid the errors that have cost McLaren valuable points earlier in the season, especially under intense pressure.

Don’t rule Piastri out. He could capitalise if Norris struggles, making intra-team dynamics possibly championship-defining. Verstappen, rejuvenated by recent events, is perfectly placed to strike against either McLaren driver if opportunities arise.

Thanks to the Las Vegas upheaval, the championship is now a closely fought contest, certain to be decided in the gruelling deserts of Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

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