Staff writer Abigail Curd predicts frontrunners for the 2026 Academy Award nominations.
The festival season has finished and awards season has begun! Many of the biggest movies of the year have premiered in circuits such as the London Film Festival for their first UK screenings, soon securing wide releases to audiences over the next few months. Though the Oscars are a long way away, there are already some serious contenders for the industry’s biggest awards.
Bugonia
The collaboration between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone has (with the exception of last year’s Kinds of Kindness) been a huge success awards-wise. Both The Favourite (2018) and Poor Things (2023) gained numerous Academy Awards nominations, including for Best Picture, and the latter won Stone a Best Actress Oscar. Those who enjoyed the aforementioned movies will enjoy Bugonia.
All the hallmarks of the Lanthimos house style are there. It’s weird and unique, there is interesting camerawork and imagery, and visceral performances from Lanthimos regular Jesse Plemmons, as well as newcomer Aidan Delbis. Their relationship, as two cousins who kidnap Stone’s powerful CEO thinking she is an alien, is at the heart of the film. Plus, it tackles the place of conspiracist thinking in American culture and the relationship between capitalism and medicine.
The Academy often gives its biggest award to films that discuss contemporary political issues, but what makes Bugonia interesting is that it takes these conversations and pushes them through its use of sci-fi tropes. In that way it’s similar to Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (2022’s Best Picture winner), which dealt with motherhood and the immigrant experience through its depiction of a fantastical multiverse, staying just grounded enough to land its important emotional beats. ‘Bugonia’ might benefit from that same mix of genre convention and serious commentary.
Hamnet
This adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell novel of the same name has the potential to make every spectator weep. It’s two hours long, with the second half being made of a wall-to-wall emotional catharsis that doesn’t let up for a second. It’s safe to say that the central performance of Agnes Hathaway by Jessie Buckley has near guaranteed her nominations in the acting categories.
Director Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland (2020) won Best Picture, and Hamnet is very much a return to form after the critically panned and near-universally dismissed Eternals (2021). ‘Hamnet’ is a beautiful film about grounded, realistic characters, dealing primarily with their relationships to each other within a family unit.
The Academy has historically awarded these sorts of movies, most recently with CODA (2021), another tearjerker, which follows two Deaf parents and their teenage daughter as she grows up and dreams to pursue a career as a singer. Hamnet is also a period piece, a genre of film that has consistently won big at the Oscars, such as Oppenheimer (2023) and Green Book (2018).
It Was Just an Accident (Un Simple Accident)
Discussions about the Oscars season are usually focused on American films, or at least those in English, but ever since Parasite won in 2019, things have changed. More and more films from around the world have found success in categories outside designated international feature awards. Jafar Panahi’s most recent film, therefore, is as big an awards player for the Oscars as anything else on this list.
It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes Film Festival, the highest prize which was also awarded to Anora and Parasite. This award has recently become a reliable predictor of success at the Oscars. Last year, two films not in the English language made it into the Best Picture shortlist, including the Brazilian film ‘I’m Still Here’, which similarly depicts the impact of political imprisonment of everyday people. Panahi’s deft mix of tragedy and comedy gives the film an undeniable energy. The final few moments use sound to create an atmosphere more ominous than any horror film.
The film stars a cast of mostly non-professional actors and was filmed in secret. Panahi based the film on his own experiences after the Iranian government deemed his work ‘propaganda against the system’, banning him from making films or leaving the country. He spent some time imprisoned or under house arrest, where he made his documentary This Is Not A Film (2011) on an iPhone. Panahi is an internationally celebrated auteur, and his earlier films Taxi (2015) and The Circle (2000) both won at major European film festivals and recieved awards at smaller American and English-language film competitions. But with It Was Just An Accident, it seems certain that Panahi will receive acclaim from the biggest awards bodies in the film industry, including the Oscars.
One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson might be one of the most popular directors among cinephiles, but he has never won Best Director. His newest film might change that. One Battle After Another has received glowing reviews from critics and audiences. It is Anderson’s most expensive film to date, which means it has not yet broke even at the box office, but it is still in cinemas and has made over $170 million (£127 million) worldwide so far. The box office has never been a reliable indicator of awards success – last year’s winner Anora was only the 65th highest earning movie of 2024 according to Box Office Mojo, One Battle After Another is currently at 19th – but it is an indicator of popularity among general audiences.
Additionally, Anderson filmed it in the rare format VistaVison (you can see a print in the Odeon Luxe in Leicester Square, one of only three in the world). In the wake of last year’s ‘The Brutalist’, which was filmed in Panavision and was nominated for various awards including Best Picture, the unique format could help ‘One Battle After Another’ stand out from the crowd.
Leonardo Di Caprio’s lead performance is big, energetic and, most importantly, hilarious. Di Caprio won his only Oscar for ‘The Revenant’ (2015), which he famously took quite seriously, but this film shows off his ability to balance comedic sequences with seriousness. He is certainly a contender Best Actor.
Sean Penn gives perhaps the freakiest performance of the year as the narrative’s villain. Newcomer Chase Infiniti holds her own against these big names, and it would be great to see her get some awards buzz.
The film is also deeply relevant politically, tackling the USA’s relationship to immigration, political violence and white supremacist organisations. But it is also – and this cannot be emphasised enough – a very fun watch.
Sinners
Ryan Coogler’s ‘Sinners’ is no doubt the breakout film of 2025. Released early in the year, it took the world by storm, racking up both positive reviews from critics and general audiences around the world. Michael B. Jordan (who has starred in all but one of Coogler’s films) plays the dual roles of twins Smoke and Stack. His performance has rightly been celebrated for his charisma and skill at distinguishing the two characters.
Supporting performances from Wunmi Moskatu as Annie and Miles Canton, in his film debut, as Sammie are also likely to win praise in awards circles. The film’s special effects and period setting have set it up nicely for some craft awards. ‘Sinners’ has put forward two of its songs for the Oscar’s Best Original Song category, and has a good chance of winning there too. Only one horror film has managed to win Best Picture – Silence of the Lambs (1991) – but the Academy has opened itself up to rewarding genre movies over the past few years, including nominating the body-horror movie The Substance for Best Picture last year.
This is Coogler’s first original film since ‘Fruitvale Station’ (2013), having directed ‘Creed’ (2015) and two ‘Black Panther’ movies (in 2018 and 2022). The first ‘Black Panther’ even managed a Best Picture nomination, a rarity for a superhero movie. It would be a massive upset if ‘Sinners’ leaves awards season empty handed.
Newsletter Editor at Roar and 3rd year Classics student.
