Comment Editor Rayhan Hussain reflects on the Conservative Party’s heavy local election losses, questioning Reform’s long-term credibility and urging the centre-right to remain united amid a moment of reckoning.
It has, as expected, been a bruising night for the Conservative Party. Council losses across the country and a disappointing by-election verdict in Runcorn & Helsby – where Nigel Farage’s party defeated Labour by just six votes – were only the initial results.
Alongside this – a surging Reform UK, where they have witnessed the decisive election of their first ever Mayor in Greater Lincolnshire, have all compounded what many will see as a moment of reckoning for the centre-right.
The headlines are dire, and the commentary is even worse. But to write off the Conservative Party based on these results would not only be premature – it would be foolish.
Let’s be clear. These results are depressing for us. We are still in the aftermath of a historic general election defeat where we’ve never had so few MPs. But it is a reminder that there is only space for one party to dominate the centre right of British politics, and that is, despite everything, the Conservative Party.
Reform’s wins overnight, from Staffordshire to Northumberland, reflect a British public that is tired and disillusioned of the two main political parties. They feel let down by broken promises and hollow expectations. But ultimately, Reform are a protest party. They are a movement, not a party built on serious governance.
Now that they are responsible for the running of services, whether its potholes, bin collections, or council budgets, they will be judged not by slogans but by their record. It is fine time to see whether their punchy rhetoric matches the often slow burning reality of running local government.
As for Robert Jenrick’s leaked comments to UCL Tories endorsing local pacts with Reform? Let’s not pretend this is something new. Coalitions of convenience are an explicit feature of local government. It avoids councils being left with the stasis of No Overall Control.
The Tories and Labour have even worked together in town halls before, this is how you get the bins collected, social care dealt with, and the books balanced. It doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to form electoral pacts at a national level.
Nationally, the idea of an electoral pact or coalition with Reform is absurd. There is zero rationale for joining forces with a man who has repeatedly avowed that his stated mission is to destroy the Conservative Party. Some may say an agreement of some sort is inevitable – but that is only possible if the Conservatives give up entirely.
The Labour Party should not be celebrating either. Their disastrous showing overnight proves that their loveless landslide back in July last year was just that. Because fundamentally, Labour have done what Labour love to do – revert to type.
Whether its stripping pensioners of their winter fuel payments, taxing family farms into oblivion, or hiking National Insurance on employers – a ‘Jobs Tax’ that will be felt by workers and consumers across the country, they have proved themselves unworthy and incompetent of being serious stewards of our great nation.
And you only need to look at what’s happening in Birmingham. On the ground, rubbish piled up in the streets, rats running around, council tax rising – that is the reality of a Labour-run council in bankruptcy. That is not a vision for our country – it is a display of the warning lights flashing red.
The truth is that political renewal takes time. The previous Labour opposition were out of power for 14 years, the Conservatives before them: 13 years. And before that, another Labour wilderness lasting 18 years.
Kemi Badenoch has been Leader of the Opposition for just six months. You cannot turn around the fortunes of a battered party in such a short space of time. We didn’t just lose voters to Reform, we lost voters to the Liberal Democrats and Labour too.
Badenoch is right to be cautious, building solid foundations to rebuild trust with the British people. She is also right to want to take time to work out policy. The newly established Policy Commissions, which will report directly to the Conservative leader, will do just that.
A serious contender for elected office cannot announce policy on the hoof simply to get on the front pages or rack up social media clicks. Those clamouring for instant policy soundbites often blur the line between headline-chasing and authentic statesmanship.
On Indefinite Leave to Remain and the flaws of Net Zero by 2050, the party have announced a credible change of direction. There is undeniably a long way to go, but things are moving in the right direction.
Four years ago, Keir Starmer had a horrific and humiliating night of local elections – losing the Parliamentary seat of Hartlepool to the governing party mid-term. That was during the Tories’ heyday, in the middle of the vaccine bounce and Boris Johnson’s peak era as prime minister. It is these same councils up for election now – making this set of result even more difficult for us.
It has subsequently been revealed that Starmer contemplated resigning after being written off by much of the Westminster village. Today, he is Prime Minister. It is an important lesson that these local elections should not be used as an opinion poll.
If we have learned anything from observing politics over the last few years, it is that divided parties do not win elections. Labour did not deserve to win the last general election – the Tories deserved to lose.
On the whole, the Parliamentary Conservative Party is behind their leader. We need to stop discussions of leadership changes – or whether Mrs. Badenoch will lead our party into the next general election. It wouldn’t just be a pity if a demolished Tory Party descended into further chaos, dysfunction, and self-destruction – it would be existential.
I continue to have a lot of faith in the British system – it is robust, and credible outcomes almost always do emerge. The crisis of political trust we find ourselves in plays an enormous role in this new political reality.
In this age of polarisation and cynicism, we need institutions that can govern. It is why I firmly believe that the Conservative Party is one of our nation’s greatest institutions.
It often feels as though the two-party system is broken. That does not mean that the Conservatives must break with it. It is precisely because of these uncertain times that the Party must hold firm and endure. It is the only Party capable of uniting the right, stewarding the economy, and defending our national interests.
