Staff writer Ghalia Ladjimi analyses Emmanuel Macron’s surprising selection of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, arguing it ran contrary to the will of the French people.
After 51 days without a government, the longest French political crisis in recent memory, a new Prime Minister has been chosen. The wait was long, and a few days before the nomination, several names were mentioned for the role. Ultimately, and after a lot of negotiations, Emmanuel Macron chose Michel Barnier. Obviously, this was not the name France was waiting for. Indeed, after the second round of the legislative elections, the left won most of the National Assembly seats. The nomination of a leftist Prime Minister was therefore likely. However, Emmanuel Macron took another direction against the grain of the French populace.
Context: What happened during the elections?
As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly after the results of the European Elections. These elections saw the rise of the National Rally, the far-right party, as the first French Party at the European Parliament. After that, one month of campaigning and legislative elections followed. A lot of politicians, including Macron, insisted on how dangerous the National Rally could be if it were to win to elections. In order to defeat the right-leaning party, a lot of leftist parties formed a coalition: the New Popular Front (NPF). On the 7th July, after the second round of the elections, the leftist coalition came first in the votes with 182 seats while the National Rally came with 143 seats.
A long summer without government
One month after the legislative elections, France was waiting for the name of its next Prime Minister. However, Macron decided to wait all summer to make his decision. He announced a “Political Truce” referencing the “Olympic Truce” during the games in Paris. During this time several names were proposed, but the President always refused them.
The most popular figure for the role was Lucie Castet, an economist and former Financial Director for the Paris Down Hall. Associated to the Socialist Party, she participated in Anne Hidalgo’s Presidential Campaign and is close to several leftist figures. Nominated by the New Popular Front (NPF), she declared that she would reverse the pension reform by Macron. Because of this declaration and her political position, he refused the proposition, explaining his decision by saying that France needed a PM who would allow the National Assembly to work.
At the end of the summer, some names were starting to float among the possibilities. Emmanuel Macron received the two ex-Presidents, François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy. He also received Bernard Cazeneuve who was Prime Minister during President Hollande’s mandate. However, even if the name of the former PM was a good possibility for the left, the NPF was not happy. Most likely because the President always turned down the proposed candidates by the NPF, even if Cazeneuve is a leftist, the party did not name him. Therefore, it seemed for a lot of influential figures from the NPF that Macron was denying their legitimacy.
In each case, Macron made clear that the PM would not be from the NPF. This decision was controversial. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insoumise (from the NPF), said that this “election has been robbed from the French people“. Olivier Faure, a Socialist, talked about a “democratic denial“. On the contrary, the Republican Party was extremely happy about this nomination, considering Michel Barnier is one himself. For the National Rally, it is better than a leftist PM. Marine le Pen declared that the party would wait for the PM’s first propositions to decide if they will apply a censorship motion against him and his government.
Who is Michel Barnier?
Not well known of the French People, Michel Barnier is, nonetheless, an experienced politician and very well known among the political class. He is aligned on the right, more precisely a Gaullist. Indeed, he started in a Gaullist Party, created by Charles de Gaulle himself and joined the Republican Party in 2015. Serving in several French cabinet positions such as Minister of Foreign Affairs during Jacques Chirac’s mandate as well as several key positions of the European Union such as the EU’s chief negotiator on Britain’s exit from the European Union.
According to the BBC, he his a “committed patriotic conservative in the tradition of Charles de Gaulle “. Barnier is considered pro-European with neoliberal economic views. His distinct positions are also very conservative. He has advocated for stricter control on non-European immigration and, as a deputy in the National Assembly in the 1980s, voted against the decriminalisation of homosexuality.
Why did Macron name this man, far from what French People decided?
Considering these elements, it is clear that this nomination does not echo what the French People voted for. It is not even close to Macrons positions on equity. Some figures denounce the fact that Macron is not clear on his engagements. He advocated for the inclusion of abortion in the French Constitution but named a Prime Minister who voted against reimbursement of abortion costs by social security.
Therefore, why did Macron choose Barnier and not someone closer to his convictions?
The NPF received most of the votes, therefore the PM should have been from the coalition. However, in the new composition of the National Assembly, the right leaning parties together have more seats than the NPF. Even if Macron’s party (together) is not considered right leaning but more centrist, he is closer to those than the leftist parties, especially from the NPF. The Republican Party is one of the weakest in the Assembly, with only 47 deputies, however it is now close from the National Rally, the far-right party. These three parties united have 372 seats in the Assembly, far beyond the NPF which has 180 seats. Thus, if the NFP is the party who had most of the seats as a party alone, it does not stand a chance against the right wing parties.
One reason to explain Macron’s decision, given the fact that the left is not as strong as the right, is because he had to name a PM who would have a government accepted by most of the Assembly. Unfortunately, if he named a PM from the left, no propositions from the NPF would have been accepted by the other parties. However, another choice, such as Bernard Cazeneuve, would have been viable. He is a leftist but not from the NPF and is respected by all the different parties.
Was Macron allowed to name a right wing PM?
The President’s decision was so far from the elections results that it is possible to wonder whether this is legal. Did he have the right to ignore the results? According to the French Constitution, the President has no obligations to name a PM from the strongest party at the Assembly. Moreover, no legal institutions are allowed to challenge the decision.
However, if Macron had no obligation to name a PM from the NPF, this decision could be dangerous for him. One of the parties composing the NPF, La France Insoumise, may start a dismissal procedure against the President. This procedure has few chances to succeed; however, the French People distrust Macron more than ever.
This political crisis may show that Macron’s decision to organise new legislative elections was probably a mistake. Though the earlier National Assembly’s composition was not in his favour, the government was stable and did not face any real risk of dismissal procedure. However, with this new composition, the Prime Minister and his government will have to be careful about their proposition and the way they rule the country, especially on difficult issues such as the pension reform.
A few days ago Michel Barnier announced the members of his government. unsurprisingly, no NPF deputies have been named. The situation in the National Assembly is likely to be tense in the following weeks, especially if the National Rally and the New Popular Front are not satisfied with Barnier’s proposition and way of ruling.
